Is the Ukraine Crisis a gray rhino or a black swan?
A black swan event is an unforeseeable event. A gray rhino is risk that some people do talk about, and act on.
“The [gray rhino'] concept is meant to inspire more people to recognize and act on obvious dangers ahead of time instead of looking away."
~ Michele Wucker, author of The Gray Rhino and You Are What You Risk (and my longtime pal from New York days!)
Hello, I thought when I saw Michele’s post “Some Thoughts on the Ukraine Crisis” today. It really struck home.
In order for more of us to recognize and act on obvious dangers ahead of time means… that we need to learn from people who do talk about and act on risk.
We need to see these people in our network who gauge risk ahead of time and act on it, instead of looking away from them, instead of pooh-poohing what they are saying or doing about a risk they have spent time considering and we have not. We need to follow them and read what they share.
Think of a person in your world who talks about risk and takes action that we all should be listening to about the gray rhino risks they perceive today. We have a lot to learn from them.
I'll tag Shefaly Yogendra Ph.D. who is especially good on risk in the boardroom.